Theses on escalation in Donbass
In 2014, that is, 7 years ago, Russia made a huge mistake . Putin did not use the unique chance that opened up after the Maidan, the junta’s seizure of power in Kiev and Yanukovych’s flight to Russia. This time the President, consistent in his geopolitics, was not true to himself. I state this without any malice, rather with deep pain and heartfelt fury.
The missed chance was called “Novorossiya”, “Russian Spring”, “Russian World”. Its meaning was as follows:
- non-recognition of the Kiev junta, which seized power in the course of a violent and illegal coup,
- Yanukovych’s request to advocate the restoration of the constitutional order,
- support for the uprising in Eastern Ukraine,
- the introduction of troops at the request of the legitimate President (model Assad),
- establishing control over half of the territory of Ukraine,
- movement to Kiev.
Here one could stop and strike a balance before moving on or announcing the existence of another country.
Instead, Moscow was content with reunification with Crimea and lingering aid to the Donbass. Thank God we didn’t pass at all.
Refusal from such a development of the situation was motivated by a “cunning plan”. After 7 years, it is obvious that, alas, there was no “cunning plan”. Who spoke for him – scoundrels and cowards.
Further, Surkov rushes to Donbass and the Minsk process begins. But the point, of course, is not Surkov, but the fact that knowing who Surkov is and how he acts, he was thrown there. It was a sign: we stop and begin a protracted and leadless process, because everything that Surkov ever put his hand to was exactly what it was – it did not lead anywhere.
It was then and exactly for my position on Novorossiya that the Kremlin sent me into disgrace. Which lasts until now. Leaving Moscow State University, stop-lists on the main channels, where until this moment I was invited weekly . The wall of silence.
In that situation – even before the recognition of Crimea – I gave a very important structural analysis, having voiced it on the main Russian channels, in many publications, in blogs and social networks. It boiled down to the following:
- If we recognize Crimea, the 5th column will rise, i.e. outspoken foreign agents who are not shy about working directly for a force hostile to Russia.
- If we get involved in the creation of Novorossia, the 6th column will rise, that is, the liberals in power, the oligarchs and that significant, if not the main, part of the Russian elite, which, being formally loyal to the patriotic course of President Putin, is organically connected with the West and is immensely burdened by this course …
- If Novorossiya takes place, the 5th and then the 6th column will logically be defeated, the Russian turn and full-fledged imperialism with counter-hegemonic ideology will begin. It was clear to me that this was the only way to act.
All phases of monitoring the unfolding of dramatic events in Ukraine and their geopolitical analysis – sequentially, step by step – I described in the book “ Ukraine. My war . “
The book was – almost – banned.
Crimea was recognized, although at first it seemed they might not be recognized. On this occasion, I had a tough clash with Solovyov on the air. This is now he ultras. At that moment, he at least hesitated, if not worse.
The project of Novorossiya was designated by Putin himself , but immediately collapsed.
His words on the air about helping the “Russian World” have not yet ceased to sound, and the policy has already changed in the opposite direction. The parties stopped at this and began to negotiate. Without New Russia. She was not betrayed, but she was not saved either. They postponed it.
This means the 6th column won then . The fifth still went to rallies under the slogans “Putin, return Crimea to Kiev!”, And the sixth – obviously, against its will – recognized the Crimean consensus. But on condition that Putin stops there. Unfortunately, he stopped at that moment.
This is where the ugly story with the “cunning plan” began. The “tricky plan” consisted only in lifting the escalation – and this with the complete unpreparedness of the junta to wage any kind of effective war, in contrast to what we have now! – to maintain at any cost the connection with the West . Putin was clearly not behind the plan, but Putin accepted it.
It could not lead to anything, and it did not lead to anything. We lost 7 years, and our opponents gained them.
The only thing that brightened up this period was Trump’s fourth anniversary. Trump was not a convinced Atlanticist, and tried not to unnecessarily escalate with Russia. His plan was to focus on US domestic issues and leave the world alone. Moreover, he challenged the most powerful globalist lobby by defining it as a “swamp”. However, we didn’t take advantage of this either. And again for this we must thank the 6th column. In addition, direct Atlanticist agents sent from the United States under the guise of “leftists” demonized Trump and Trumpism in every possible way.
The sanctions against Russia were imposed in full. As if we liberated all of Novorossiya. But they falsely promised to remove it. They have not removed and will not be removed. Others will impose.
Syria was a successful and correct geopolitical move, but this did not in any way remove or save the Ukrainian impasse . A tactical victory was achieved in Syria . It’s fine. But it is not as important as the transition to a full-fledged Eurasian effort to restore a continental power . And it never happened. New Russia was the key.
Since the 6th column actually won, the spiritual transformation of Russia did not begin either. Ideology was postponed, technical issues were taken up, control over political processes was in the hands of technocrats. The meanings have been bracketed. Stagnation began, where primitive entertainment and corruption, rapidly growing from boredom and lack of ideas, came to the fore. And the returned Crimea became part of the same bleak Russian social landscape – without Donbass, the Crimean spring also turned into a compromise. Better, of course, than under the Nazi liberals of Kiev, but far from what it should have been.
And now, after the brutal breakthrough of Biden’s neocons into the White House, everything has returned to the positions where the parties left off in 2014.
The Minsk format has remained nothing .
Surkov disappeared from the process, like Satan in the Apocalypse – here he was, and he is not, and again appears and disappears again. But this did not affect anything.
Only the Ukrainian army in 7 years was able to prepare, come close to NATO membership and raise a whole generation of Ukrainian Russophobes of a radical persuasion.
All this time Donbass was vegetating. Yes, there was help, without it he simply would not have survived. But nothing more. And with the sword of Damocles hung over him the Minsk negotiation process – a threat that, on some of its own terms, Moscow would return the proud rebels of the Republics to Kiev – that is, hand them over to the executioners.
Now Washington is one step away from giving the go-ahead for an attack. And we have no choice – to answer or not. Again, like 7 years ago, the words that I expressed on Channel One and because of which I no longer appear there retain their meaning in full:
“If we lose Donbass, we will lose Crimea, if we lose Crimea, we will lose Russia.”
Today, in 2021, if Kiev starts a punitive operation, we simply will have no other choice but to enter the war . But if we enter into it, the goal of the neocons will be achieved. They may well sacrifice Ukraine, as Georgia, even more allied to them, did in 2008. At the same time, it will hit the mediastinum of Russian-European relations, completely undermine the Nord Stream, cut off Russia from the West, and at the same time consolidate NATO. Not so much for Russia as it should be, but for Russia as it is now – with all the compromises and uncertainties – this will be a serious blow. It will not end so easily for her, since the radicalization of pressure from the globalist West will push pro-Western elites and corrupt clans that hold assets in the West to revolt. in Russia itself. The 6th column will not be able to reconcile with Novorossiya and will try to overthrow the President. This is what counts.
That is, the “collective Biden” (even if the old man does not understand anything at all on an individual basis, it does not matter) as a whole has a completely rational strategy . Trump postponed the inevitable, but the respite is over.
Will this be the beginning of a full-fledged war between Russia and the United States ? Absolutely not , no matter what anyone says.
Ukraine is not a strategic priority for the United States. What remains of it after our offensive will become a member of NATO, but this is also not particularly important, the whole of Eastern Europe is already in NATO. The blow to Russia will be the most severe. Especially because all the previous 20 years – not to mention the 90s – Russia has tried to balance between two vectors –
- continental patriotic and
- moderately Westernizing.
Even 20 years ago, when Putin just came to power, I wrote that such a balancing act would be extremely difficult and it would be better to immediately choose Eurasia and multipolarity.
Putin rejected – more precisely, postponed indefinitely – continentalism or moved towards it in an hour by a teaspoonful. My only mistake was that I assumed that such half-heartedness could not last long. It could and still lasts.
But everything always comes to an end .
I’m not 100% sure that this is exactly what is happening now, but there is a certain – and very significant – possibility. The end comes to the compromise between (inconsistent) patriotism and (even less consistent) liberalism (primarily in the economy, culture, education), between which – trying to combine the incongruous – like a tightrope walker – the Russian government was balancing.
And this, in a sense, is perfectly natural, if not good. Better late than never. I am not saying that we need to start first. Let it be said by those who are allowed to do everything today. I just want to say that if Kiev launches an offensive in Donbass, we simply won’t have a chance to evade the inevitable. And if the war cannot be avoided, it remains only to win.
Further, we will return to the same thing that was described in detail in the book “ Ukraine. My War ”- that is, to New Russia, the Russian Spring, the final liberation from the 6th column, the full and final spiritual rebirth of Russia. This is a very difficult path. But we probably have no other choice.
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